The latest draconian (is an understatement) extremist forced birther laws and Barr’s lies and misrepresentation combined with Trump having been Trump have yielded the inevitable. Donald Trump is in really deep, deep trouble. Last time, he lost the popular vote by three million votes and only skated into the White House via the electoral college. That is a relatively uncommon way to get to the White House. To win the electoral college, you normally have to win the popular vote as well. The odds of winning the electoral college without winning the popular vote are worse than 1 in 3. Some people didn’t take the warnings about what Donald Trump would be like as president seriously. Some people didn’t think that they had to be involved to make him lose by their activism as well as their votes. Now, a huge number of people know that is not the case. They realize that they need to be active participants in this democracy instead of counting on others to vote rationally and not worry about the outcome.
Women vote at a higher rate than men. Women are 53% of the electorate due to their voting rates. He is losing women by 21 points and only winning men by 2 points. He is losing the LBGTQ vote badly as well. So, there is nowhere he is making up that huge loss of the biggest voting block.
54% of registered voters said that they will vote for somebody other than Donald Trump and only 38% will vote for him when it is put as a referendum on Donald Trump. When it is put in terms of head to head polling, he doesn’t get past 41% of the vote against anybody. The people that he fares the best against are those who are unknown to a large portion of the electorate like my first choice Senator Kamala Harris. When the electorate gets to know her, I predict that she also will build a large lead against him as well. Senator Elizabeth Warren, my second choice, is leading him. Senator Sanders is leading Donald Trump. Former Vice President Joe Biden is leading him. Comparing the results to each other now is too early in terms of electability but it is not too early to form certain conclusions from putting them altogether. One certain conclusion we can draw is that Donald Trump is in an enormous amount of trouble electorally.
Furthermore, does anybody believe that he can and will expand his base through outreach ? Every word he speaks and action he takes demonstrates otherwise. He cannot and will not speak and act in such a way as to expand his base of support. These numbers are not going to improve. When an incumbent is below 50, they are in trouble. To be at 38 percent despite this economy is a disaster and it means that if we all do everything we can to defeat him, he will lose badly in November 2020. His negative reelection numbers are three times worse than President Obama ever had at any point in his time as president (-5) vs (-16).